Wednesday, April 29, 2009

4/29 Market wrap up

Dow 8,185.73 +168.78
S&P 868.70 +16.90
EUR-USD 1.3264
OIL 51.01
Gold 900.10
10yr 97.109 3.09%

-OBAMA said to announce Chrysler bankruptcy tomorrow
-Positive earnings lead rally
-dream works killing it up 25% after beating estimates
-TWC up 3% after beating eps by 5 cents
-swine flu raised to level 5
-Volker says the US economy is leveling off no need for second fiscal stimulus package
-Lewis Ranieri says that housing market close to bottom

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

4/28 market wrap uP

Dow 8016.95 -8.05
S&P 50 855.16 -2.35
EUR-USD 1.3149
OIL 49.65
10 yr 97.828 3.01%

-Citi and BofA both short capital according to stress test
BoF A down 77 cents citi fell 18 cents to 2.89
BofA needs 60- 70 B according to Freidman Billings ramsey
-Delta shares off 9.9% off Swine Flu
-GM off 23 cents to 1.81 after bondholders expectedly rejected the 27 billion dollar debt exchange proposal
-IBM in the plus up 2% on news of 3b buyback and boosting div 10%
-Office Depot also in the green after reporting positive earnings of 10cents a share beating estimates
-Coventry Health Care 7.1% to 15.22 after beating analyst earning expectations by 21% at 30 cents a share nice



Thursday, April 23, 2009

Value of MBAs falling no more getting rich quick

2 years ago when I started my MBA I had planned that I would be using my signing bonus at this time to put a down payment on a ferrari with a vanity plate reading "Gupinater".   Fast forward and I am now spending my time writing pro bono on a blog with the long shot hope google ad words makes me a mint.  This is very unlikely in fact I would be amazed if I can make enough money via my blog to purchase a six pack at the end of the year nothing fancy just PBR.  anyways enough bs I have posted an article below from the JOurnal confirming that Marvin Lee Gupta AKA the gupinater is not alone.   Apparently many MBAs are losing home and considering the 100k they just spent a sunk cost and are moving on.    With that said I question if they cost of an MBA will ever effect the decrease in value provided?  Although this is probably temperary it is huge had the market prospects been the same 2 years ago I would have been hesitant to plop down 100K to be in the position I am in today. with that said will the cost be the same and expected return decrease or will the "Friedman" market forces kick it and bring the cost down to 50K?  let me know what you think.  the article is below.

adios amigos

4/23 Market Update

Dow: 7,957.06 +70.49
S&P 851.92 +8.37
10 yr 98.578 .92%
Oil: 49.66
EUR-USD 1.3145 +.0002



Headlines
Marriot: beats estimates stock up 12%
Ebay and Apple: stocks surge after yesterdays rosy earnings reports
NYSE EURONEXT up 14% on take over speculation
PACTIV: up 21% biggest mover in S&P on bullish profit estimates 
AMAZON beats EPS estimates
UPS 1st Q profits down 56% Brown is not killing it stock off 2.5% on news provided weaker Q2 profits in 45-55Cent range vs 65cents
AMEX beats estimates 32 cents vs 12 cents a share still down 56% from last year stock rallies 7.9% on news
MSFT quarterly revenue fell from the previous year first time in 23 year history 33 cents vs 47 from last year


Become a professional gambler? Why not? Interview with Raul Cohen

The good thing about being unemployed is that your opportunity costs are low.  Thus it is a time to try new things and take a look at creative and fun ways to make money. One of my all time career goals has been to become a professional gambler. I figure now is a better time than any to give it a try since I do not have much to lose.   With that said I did some investigative reporting and contacted a semi pro poker player.  Raul Cohen is a undergrad student at a big 10 university and has managed to make over 150K in the past two years with limited cash while attending school full time.   Although 150K for 2 years does not sound like much given are expectations after graduating from a top MBA program, it is not a bad deal considering that one can maintain a full time job and play poker, or that many like myself our unemployed. Thus  75K a year playing poker does not seem all that shabby.   Let's learn more.  

Q&A

How much did you make playing Poker since you started?  
Over the last 2.5 years of my undergrad I made about $150k 

How long did it take you to start making cash?
After 3 months I was beating the low stakes for 2k/month 

Is this a crowded market? 
In the past 4 years the market has become a lot more competitive. But in general there is an enormous supply of degenerates, and plenty that try to do what I do but are incapable. 

Can unemployed broke MBA's be taught how to play?
Absolutely.  MBA's by default are usually intelligent, and being a critical thinker is the most important skill in playing poker.  I recently coached an undergrad business student to beat the $25 tables for 1k/month after knowing him for only 2 months.

How much can an MBA expect to make playing if they learn your system?
With some focus and good risk management one could expect to make between 1k-3k after a couple months.  If the person sticks with it and works hard they could make between 40-100k after a year.

How long to train an MBA to play poker?
1-2 months

Do you advise playing with Visors or Sunglasses?
Usually I like to clearly look my opponents in the eye as the dealer ships me the pot.

What is your poker strategy?
Basically, gathering as much information as possible and just figuring out how people think and then playing optimally against them based on what I know they know.  Also removing bad as well as good reactions and emotions from your play is uber important.

Last but not least Killing It or Getting it Done?
Without a doubt Killing it



Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Talk like Shakespeare Day in Chicago

Today, in Chicago, Mayor Daley has declared the "Talk like Shakespeare Day". While I think it's a good idea to remember the great Elisabethan bard, I won't make any attempt to talk like him. Supposedly, you have to replace "you" with "thou", "is" with "tis", start your sentences with "methinks" and end every verb with "eth".


Why I mention this, beside to remember you that it's time to brush up on your Shakespeare knowledge? Well, a while ago, I've seen an advertisment on a bench, saying "Shakespeare, creating employment for the last 400 years." How true! I still remember that ad. 

So, brother, where art thou?

The Pregnant and the Unemployed

The Pregnant and The Unemployed

To set things straight, my wife is the pregnant one in this story, and I am the unemployed. Our baby boy is supposed to come any day now, but it could also be a week until it happens. My wife took the week off from work, so she can rest during the day and mentally prepare for the labor and delivery. I did not have to take any time off, because I was already at home, watching the horizon for jobs. While seen from outside, these may be tough and trying times for us, it is actually the reverse. We have realized, with surprise in our voices as we were saying it, that in more than 13 years of marriage, this has never happened to us: to be together at home, for many days in a row, enjoying each other company, while we’re waiting for our first baby to pop out. These must be really special times, which, by the nature of this situation, could be repeated, but never matched again in our lives. Nothing will be like this, because these moments are unique, through the uniqueness of the feelings attached to every moment. Watching the kicking belly has become our daily avocation. The stress of finding a job is still there, but is now muffled and weak.

My point of this story is the following: yes, being unemployed is a stressful situation by itself, you don’t have to participate into making even more stressful. You are also not alone in this state, as you can probably read the unemployment report. You can do many, many things to take advantage of this time off, which you may not get back until retirement. Use this time wisely. My favorite activities are, in this order: networking with existing friends and making new ones, learning new skills (getting a license, prepare and take an exam), taking some time off (sic!) and think about what would be the perfect use of my professional time. Spending time with friends is very rewarding. Not only you have a chance to bounce ideas off each other, but you have fun doing it as well.

If you are not an MBA, you may think of applying to a business school, because when the economy turns around, the MBA skills will be back in demand, no matter what the naysayers are saying today about the value of the MBA. I don’t know about other schools, but as a graduate of Chicago Booth, I highly value the skills I’ve worked hard to acquire. They are indeed very valuable. I know that, and every Chicago Booth graduate knows that. And that’s enough for me.

If you are an MBA grad, then going back to your school’s career service center to ask for guidance, may be a good idea. They have many resources you can use to think, rethink, strategize, network, and research your next move.

Whatever you do, make sure you are enjoying every moment of it. That’s my advice.

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Summary 9/22/09

DOW 76886.57 -82.99 
S&P 500 843.55 -6.53
10 Year 98.391 Yield 2.94
EUR-USD 1.3004
OIL 48.65 +.1

Headlines
-Morgan Stanley Whiffs and misses earnings Stock down 9%
-AT&T beat estimates
-CFO of Freddie Mac Suicide
-APPLe beats estimates on IPHONE and IPOD sales
-EBAY beats analyst expectations
-Goldman issues buy on Ford shares up 13% (that Fusion is Hot)